By London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Friday 30 Nov, 06:35 EST
Gold Recovers Pre-Jump-and-Slump Level, Forecast to Average $1920 in 2013
GOLD PRICES rose back to $1730 per ounce in early London trade on Friday – the same level seen just before last week’s late jump and subsequent 2.0% sell-off on Wednesday. Silver touched a new 8-week high just shy of $34.40 per ounce, while the broader commodities market ticked lower. Major-government debt prices were flat. So too were European stock markets. New data today showed Eurozone unemployment hitting a post-unification record of 11.7%. The German Bundestag voted 473 to 100 to approve the latest €44 billion aid to Greece. ”[Gold demand from] central banks could help the price, specifically South American banks,” says one London trader in a note ”But that’s demand for the long run, and our days are made of shorter-term decisions.” Latest data from the US Mint showed a strong rise in sales of Gold Coins to retail dealers in late November. Holdings in exchange-traded trust products (gold ETFs) rose globally to a new record high of 2,619.4 tonnes according to Bloomberg. ”[That’s] proof that gold remains in high demand as a store of value and a safe haven despite all the price fluctuations,” says this morning’s note from Commerzbank in Frankfurt. ”My average [gold price] forecast for 2013 is $1920,” says David Jollie at Mitsui, the Japanese trading conglomerate. He was the winner in 2011 of the London Bullion Market Association’s silver forecast. ”We expect investment demand to remain robust in China,” adds the latest monthly report from Standard Bank’s precious metals analysts here in London. ”The reasons for the expected rise in gold investment demand in China are broad-based and, we believe, very similar to those in many other countries…substantial monetary stimulus and low or negative real interest rates.” Speaking today to Reuters, Marcus Grubb, director for investment at market-development organization the World Gold Council, said “There’s evidence already that the Chinese economy is bottoming out, and beginning to recover again. ”[Gold will] have strength into Q1 next year on Chinese New Year,” Grubb added, forecasting a 10% rise in 2013 gold demand from this year’s likely 800-tonne total. ”I think you’ll see China perform strongly in 2013 as the economy recovers.”
Adrian Ash
BullionVault
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Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and just 0.5% dealing fees.
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