"Aggressive Investors" Target $1400 Gold

From Adrian Ash

BullionVault

And $25 Silver as Global Currency Crisis “Is Upon Us”

THE WHOLESALE PRICE of gold and silver bullion retreated from fresh record highs against the Dollar early Thursday afternoon in London, slipping back from overnight jumps of 1.3% and 4.5% respectively as the US currency’s latest plunge paused.
European stock markets reversed early gains, but Asian stocks ended the day more than 1.5% higher on the MSCI index, as the Japanese Yen squashed the Dollar to a new 15-year low beneath ¥81 and the Euro leapt above $1.41.

“It is no wonder the rally of precious metals has been relentless,” said a Hong Kong dealer of Thursday’s Asian trade. “Silver led the pack higher…Then gold took over.

“[Platinum and palladium] have been relatively tame…failing to hurdle last week’s highs.”

With crude oil rising back above $83.50 per barrel today, the Canadian Dollar broke above parity to the US currency – only the second time since 1977.

But gold rose faster still, setting new record highs vs. the Loonie at C$1385 per ounce. Priced in US Dollars, gold and silver bullion hit $1387 and $24.90 at Thursday morning’s peak.

There are “large [numbers of] December option strikes at $1400 and $25,” notes one London dealer.

“Aggressive investor buying is pushing gold towards the next major resistance level of $1400,” agrees Walter de Wet at Standard Bank.

“Expectations of further quantitative easing by the Fed, continues to dominate precious metals markets. [But] the physical market remains weak, with gold scrap availability remaining high.”

Wednesday’s slump in the Dollar – and concomitant rise in gold and silver – came after European Central Bank policy-maker Axel Weber told a conference that the ECB should halt its government-bond buying program, and start raising interest rates “before the phasing out” of the exceptional banking support offered since 2007.

“This statement had more effect on the market than the [US Federal Reserve] minutes,” notes MKS Finance, a division of the Swiss refinery group.

“The cracks are getting wider, the crisis is upon us,” says Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities in London.

Warning clients to pay attention to “the rifts that are opening up within Asia” over the US Dollar’s six-month tumble, Ostwald points to unilateral controls on foreign-investment flows and exchange rates by Russia, Singapore and Taiwan.

Bank of Korea chief Kim Choong-Soo today rebuffed comments from a “certain country” – Japan’s finance minister Yoshihiko Noda – questioning Seoul’s ability to lead next month’s G20 summit of advanced and emerging economies because of its repeated interventions in the currency market.

Tokyo meantime confirmed that it spent ¥2.1 trillion ($25bn) last month buying US Dollars to try and halt the Yen’s rise.

“We believe many hedge funds may have enjoyed [in Sept.] their highest earnings for the past year,” says a report from Japanese bank Nomura, quoted by the Financial Times‘ Alpha blog, pointing to the slumping-Dollar-led surge in bonds, equities and commodity prices.

“Accordingly, we now expect those hedge funds to lock in those profits ahead of their year-end book closing in November.”

Noting that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak on monetary policy Friday, “The main risk [to silver and Gold Prices] is that he might…reign in expectations of quantitative easing,” says Standard Bank’s Walter de Wet.

“This could prompt a pull back in precious metals, possibly amplified by profit taking ahead of the weekend…[But] we anticipate some seasonal jewelry demand to prompt some buying into dips.”

Currently moving towards the peak of its post-harvest buying season, Indian gold demand will see the Hindu festival of Diwali end on 5th Nov.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

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Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the mining-sector’s World Gold Council research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2010

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