By From Adrian Ash
As Beijing Sticks with “Anything-But-Rate-Hikes” Strategy
WHOLESALE PHYSICAL GOLD hit a 3-session Dollar high in London on Monday morning, rising together with equity and commodity prices on what one trader called “relief” that Beijing did not hike Chinese interest rates as expected at the weekend.
The Euro also rose to its best level since Thursday vs. the Dollar, capping the gold price in Euros at Friday’s finish beneath €33,750 per kilo – its second-highest ever weekly finish.
Western government bonds extended their fall, driving yields higher across the board.
“The physical market is very good,” says Hong Kong head of dealing Peter Fung at Wing Fund Precious Metals.
“Bullion traders and some jewellers are buying, as well as some individual customers who prefer to sell currency and buy gold.
But “The potential for further tightening in China remains a risk,” says a Beijing commodities trader, speaking to Bloomberg.
That “could affect demand for commodities, and gold could be caught in a sell-off,” says Ong Yi Ling at Philip Futures in Singapore, speaking to Reuters.
Still following what the Financial Times‘ Alphaville blog calls China’s “anything-but-rate-hikes strategy”, Beijing’s annual economic planning meeting closed Sunday with promises but no further action to stem inflation – now rising at a 28-month record of 5.1% per year.
The bulk of China’s massive household savings are currently kept in cash accounts, and bank-deposit interest rates are currently just 2.25%.
China’s private demand to buy gold rose by more than a fifth in the 12 months to end-Sept. according to data compiled for market-development group the World Gold Council.
“Consumer prices will be stable as long as ministries and regional authorities earnestly implement the central government’s measures,” says state statistician Sheng Laiyun, speaking to the official Xinhua news agency.
“Gold is rising along with other commodities as investors buy raw materials in anticipation of even higher prices,” reckons Liu Yangyi at Zhong Jing He Investment in Beijing.
“Chinese [traders] were actively buying gold and Japanese traders buying platinum overnight in Asia,” agrees a London dealer.
Tokyo gold futures contracts rose 0.5% overnight – coming within 1% of last week’s new 27-year highs – as the Japanese Yen also rose vs. the Dollar.
Silver prices extended Friday’s late rally, regaining half of last week’s near-9% drop at $29.47 per ounce.
“We see support [for silver prices] at $27.90 and the 4-month bull channel comes in at $26.51,” says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta.
“We suggest the [speculative] market will remain long while the trend line holds.”
“Compared with gold, the price of silver still has a long way to go,” reckons Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong, quoted by the Economic Times of India.
But “Gold will outperform silver,” believes technical analyst Stephanie Aymes at Societe Generale in London, after the cheaper metal hit a four-year high relative the gold price last week.
“The gold-silver ratio reached an important support at 47.5/46,” she says, forecasting a drop in silver’s relative price to “56 or 58” per ounce of gold.
Adrian Ash
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Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the mining-sector’s World Gold Council research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c) BullionVault 2010
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